Lille 4-0 Clermont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Feb 2024

Lille
4-0 HT 4-0
Clermont
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lille vs Clermont Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 24.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.77
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
18.2
X/1
16%
3.5
X/2
8%
13.3
X/X
8%
5.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.0
2/2
9%
10.9
2/X
5%
19.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-8.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Clermont — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Clermont EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +7%
1.94/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.90
-11% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
445 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
19.4 Crosses 13.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lille vs Clermont Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Clermont
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.20
1.38 xG 0.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
436 Passes 320
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Clermont Clermont 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
01.02.2023 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Clermont Clermont FR1
28.12.2022 Clermont Clermont 0-2 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
06.03.2022 Lille Lille 4-0 HT 1-0 Clermont Clermont FR1
16.10.2021 Clermont Clermont 1-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1

Lille 4-0 Clermont — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
4-0
AWAY Clermont
2.85 xG 0.39
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 4
13 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 1
586 Passes 361
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lille vs Clermont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille cruised past Clermont 4-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lille had 60% of the ball to Clermont's 40%, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 2.85 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Lille and 0.20 for Clermont.

What was the final score of Lille vs Clermont?

Lille 4-0 Clermont in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Clermont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lille 56%, draw 22%, Clermont 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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