Lyon vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lyon v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals
Lyon vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Lyon
FR1
1-2
HT 0-1
Marsilya
FR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Lyon
FR1
0-3
HT 0-0
Lyon
FR1
2-1
HT 0-1
Marsilya
FR1
Lyon 2-3 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics
Marsilya edged past Lyon 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Marsilya made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Lyon had 63% of the ball to Marsilya's 37%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 3.01 to 0.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lyon.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lyon and 1.17 for Marsilya.
What was the final score of Lyon vs Marsilya?
Lyon 2-3 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lyon vs Marsilya?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lyon 38%, draw 26%, Marsilya 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.