Montpellier 3-2 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.64
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
14%
4.8
X/2
11%
7.57
X/X
12%
5.26
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
11%
5.02
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.59/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.53
+10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
23.3 Crosses 16.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Auxerre
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 1.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 Passes 318
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.01.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 0-2 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
21.08.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
20.05.2012 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
06.08.2011 Montpellier Montpellier 3-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
07.05.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
18.12.2010 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
3-2
AWAY Auxerre
2.04 xG 1.27
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 5
324 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 22
36 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier nicked a narrow win over Auxerre 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Montpellier as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Montpellier had 54% of the ball to Auxerre's 46%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.04 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Montpellier and 1.00 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Auxerre?

Montpellier 3-2 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 43%, draw 26%, Auxerre 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Montpellier), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Montpellier) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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