Monaco 3-1 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
3.0
6+ Goals
13%
9.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.75
X/1
14%
3.66
X/2
7%
15.2
X/X
9%
6.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.7
2/2
8%
11.9
2/X
7%
18.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.69/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.91
-1% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +26%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
432 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
19.0 Crosses 12.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Le Havre
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 0.77
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
476 Passes 245
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Monaco Monaco 1-1 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
11.11.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 0-0 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
08.02.2013 Monaco Monaco 2-1 HT 1-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
31.08.2012 Le Havre Le Havre 2-1 HT 1-0 Monaco Monaco FR2
20.04.2012 Monaco Monaco 1-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
17.12.2011 Le Havre Le Havre 2-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
3-1
AWAY Le Havre
1.98 xG 0.57
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 223
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco beat Le Havre 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Monaco had 62% of the ball to Le Havre's 38%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.98 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monaco and 1.00 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Le Havre?

Monaco 3-1 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Monaco 56%, draw 24%, Le Havre 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5
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