Brest 2-0 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.06
6+ Goals
11%
19.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.97
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
11%
13.45
X/1
17%
5.55
X/2
10%
5.27
X/X
9%
4.23
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
16%
3.7
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +13%
1.30/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.08
-15% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.6 Crosses 15.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Toulouse
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.68 xG 1.22
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
313 Passes 399
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 0-3 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
08.10.2023 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
02.04.2023 Brest Brest 3-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
15.01.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
11.01.2020 Toulouse Toulouse 2-5 HT 2-1 Brest Brest FR1
10.08.2019 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
2-0
AWAY Toulouse
0.46 xG 2.73
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
269 Passes 377
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brest vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest got the better of Toulouse 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Brest made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Brest had 43% of the ball to Toulouse's 57%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.46 to 2.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Toulouse.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Brest and 1.00 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Brest vs Toulouse?

Brest 2-0 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Brest 38%, draw 28%, Toulouse 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brest), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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