Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 1 Mar 2026

📅01/03/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
16%
4.83
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 43%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -18%
1.19/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.22
-31% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
23.8 Crosses 16.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.58 xG 1.35
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 Passes 172
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
17 Box Touches 21
35 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
06.05.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
02.08.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JPK
14.07.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.27 xG 0.70
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
257 Passes 416
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama and Nagoya Grampus couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 42% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 58%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.27 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.50 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus?

Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 32%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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