Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒12:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
21.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 35% vs market 31.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.01
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
16%
5.56
X/2
11%
5.4
X/X
15%
4.02
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
16%
3.83
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 39%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -25%
1.20/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.21
-15% / +82% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
21.5 Crosses 16.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
06.05.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
02.08.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JPK
14.07.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.58 xG 1.35
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
338 Passes 172
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
17 Box Touches 21
35 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus nicked a narrow win over Fagiano Okayama 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Nagoya Grampus found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 63% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 37%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.58 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.33 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus?

Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 37%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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