Avispa Fukuoka 2-4 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.81
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
3.81
6+ Goals
8%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 37% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.87
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
9%
13.65
X/1
15%
6.51
X/2
14%
4.85
X/X
12%
4.29
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.1
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+8.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-8.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
0.89/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.33
-19% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 78%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
16.0 Crosses 20.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.83 xG 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
264 Passes 404
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
09.11.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
18.05.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-3 HT 0-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
30.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
25.02.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
30.07.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2-4
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.53 xG 2.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 4
317 Passes 350
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka saw off Avispa Fukuoka 4-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Cerezo Osaka made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 48% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 52%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 1.53 to 2.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Avispa Fukuoka 2-4 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 34%, draw 28%, Cerezo Osaka 39%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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