Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.26
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.42
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.26
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.3
X/1
14%
4.51
X/2
12%
6.39
X/X
13%
3.61
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
13%
5.31
2/X
9%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +28%
1.31/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.85
+4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +55%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 74%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.5 Crosses 19.7
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.99 xG 0.89
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
393 Passes 239
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-3 HT 0-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
30.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
25.02.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
30.07.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
17.04.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
15.08.2021 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-0
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.33 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
395 Passes 297
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Avispa Fukuoka 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 55% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 45%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.33 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 38%, draw 30%, Avispa Fukuoka 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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