Jubilo Iwata 3-4 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.58
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.94
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
8%
6.26
X/2
15%
4.59
X/X
16%
4.01
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.21
2/X
5%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 45%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.14/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.33
+0% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 79%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
19.9 Crosses 13.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.12 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
396 Passes 474
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
29.10.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
12.03.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.08.2019 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
15.06.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
24.04.2019 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 4-1 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
3-4
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.17 xG 2.28
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
188 Passes 412
64% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka edged past Jubilo Iwata 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 38% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 62%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.17 to 2.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 1.67 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka?

Jubilo Iwata 3-4 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 30%, draw 28%, Gamba Osaka 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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