Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.12
6+ Goals
12%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.7
X/1
22%
3.71
X/2 EV+ ✗
10%
12.1
X/X
12%
5.99
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
10%
9.39
2/X
5%
17.45
Value flag · X/2 at 12.1 — our 10% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.1pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
2.23/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.49
+12% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
399 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.5 Crosses 16.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
322 Passes 408
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-0 HT 1-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
14.05.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-0 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
21.08.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-1 HT 1-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
17.04.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 4-1 HT 1-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
19.02.2017 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-2 HT 1-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇK
27.02.2016 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 3-3 HT 2-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
2-2
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.82 xG 0.48
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
314 Passes 462
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Elfsborg at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Elfsborg had 42% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 58%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.82 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elfsborg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Elfsborg and 1.33 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?

Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 51%, draw 23%, IFK Varnamo 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Elfsborg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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