Baglan Dragons 2-2 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 1 Apr 2024

Baglan Dragons
2-2 HT 2-1
Carmarthen Town
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2023/2024

Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
44%
Away Win
46%
-1.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baglan Dragons v Carmarthen Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 49%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.75/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.41
-53% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
270 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baglan Dragons
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
The Meetings
08.08.2023 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons and Carmarthen Town couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Carmarthen Town at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?

Baglan Dragons 2-2 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 31%, draw 26%, Carmarthen Town 44%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carmarthen Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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