Valerenga 1-1 Sogndal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 1st Division, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.45
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
29%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
24%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
7.47
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.9 — our 25% vs market 15.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
64%
-18.9pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.7pp
29%
Away Win
16%
+13.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valerenga EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Sogndal EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +12%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
396 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valerenga
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sogndal
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.94 xG 1.68
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
348 Passes 175
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
22 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2017 Sogndal Sogndal 5-2 HT 2-1 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
23.04.2017 Valerenga Valerenga 3-0 HT 2-0 Sogndal Sogndal NOR
15.07.2016 Valerenga Valerenga 1-1 HT 1-0 Sogndal Sogndal NOR
20.03.2016 Sogndal Sogndal 1-0 HT 1-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
05.10.2014 Valerenga Valerenga 2-1 HT 1-1 Sogndal Sogndal NOR
12.06.2014 Sogndal Sogndal 2-0 HT 0-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valerenga
1-1
AWAY Sogndal
75% Ball Possession 25%
18 Total Shots 2
8 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valerenga vs Sogndal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valerenga and Sogndal couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Valerenga at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Valerenga had 75% of the ball to Sogndal's 25%, shots finished 18-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sogndal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Valerenga and 1.67 for Sogndal.

What was the final score of Valerenga vs Sogndal?

Valerenga 1-1 Sogndal in the Norway - 1st Division on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valerenga vs Sogndal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valerenga win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Valerenga 46%, draw 25%, Sogndal 29%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valerenga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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