Crawley Town 3-4 Peterborough United — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - 1st Division, 1 Apr 2025)

Crawley Town

3-4 HT 2-3

Peterborough United

📅01/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗

England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Crawley Town vs Peterborough United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

40%

2.57

Draw

25%

3.45

Away

35%

2.32

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46%

2.23

Over 2.5

54%

1.59

Both Teams to Score

Yes

48%

1.5

52%

2.4

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

25%

4.44

2-3 Goals

38%

1.88

4-5 Goals

27%

2.76

6+ Goals

10%

7.6

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

15%

4.02

1/2

23.75

1/X

12.5

X/1

17%

6.56

X/2

5.73

X/X

12%

5.48

2/1 EV+ ✗

26.5

2/2

19%

3.26

2/X

12.3

Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our call

Over 2.5 — 54% ✓

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

40%

Home Win

35%

+5.1pp

25%

Draw

26%

-0.9pp

35%

Away Win

39%

-4.3pp

46%

Under 2.5

41%

+4.8pp

54%

Over 2.5

59%

-4.8pp

48%

BTTS Yes

62%

-15.0pp

52%

BTTS No

38%

+15.0pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crawley Town v Peterborough United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 39%

Head to Head

AWAY Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 43%

+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%

0.94/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.18

-35% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -23%

50% Ball Possession 50%

13 Total Shots 14

5 Shots on Target 5

5 Corners 5

319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 77%

16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7

11.8 Crosses 17.5

2.9 Yellow Cards 1.6

Crawley Town vs Peterborough United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Crawley Town

1W-0D-5L

AWAY Peterborough United

1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67

1.52 xG 2.19

47% Ball Possession 53%

13 Total Shots 16

5 Shots on Target 8

4 Corners 6

398 Passes 327

82% Pass Accuracy 80%

30 Box Touches 27

17 Crosses 10

2 Yellow Cards 0

The Meetings

14.12.2024 Peterborough United

4-3 HT 2-1

Crawley Town İN1

23.01.2024 Peterborough United

2-1 HT 2-1

Crawley Town İNTK

11.08.2015 Peterborough United

2-0 HT 1-0

Crawley Town İNLK

25.04.2015 Peterborough United

4-3 HT 1-1

Crawley Town İN1

11.10.2014 Crawley Town

1-4 HT 1-2

Peterborough United İN1

01.03.2014 Crawley Town

1-0 HT 0-0

Peterborough United İN1

Crawley Town 3-4 Peterborough United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Crawley Town

3-4

AWAY Peterborough United

2.02 xG 2.45

60% Ball Possession 40%

15 Total Shots 12

6 Shots on Target 7

4 Corners 5

441 Passes 261

84% Pass Accuracy 79%

34 Box Touches 21

10 Crosses 13

4 Yellow Cards 5

POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Peterborough United

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United edged past Crawley Town 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Peterborough United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 60% of the ball to Peterborough United's 40%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.02 to 2.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Crawley Town and 2.67 for Peterborough United.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Peterborough United?

Crawley Town 3-4 Peterborough United in the England - 1st Division on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Peterborough United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 40%, draw 25%, Peterborough United 35%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Crawley Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

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