Peterborough United 4-3 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 14 Dec 2024

Peterborough United
4-3 HT 2-1
Crawley Town
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Peterborough United vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.49
No
52%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.14
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.55
6+ Goals
13%
6.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.14 — our 28% vs market 13.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.32
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.59
X/2
8%
8.72
X/X
13%
6.24
2/1
7%
20.4
2/2
16%
5.6
2/X
9%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-8.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+15.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-15.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
63%
-14.9pp
52%
BTTS No
37%
+14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.76/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.08
+10% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +50%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 73%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
23.0 Crosses 15.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Peterborough United vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.14 xG 0.69
53% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
334 Passes 454
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.01.2024 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-1 HT 2-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNTK
11.08.2015 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNLK
25.04.2015 Peterborough United Peterborough United 4-3 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
11.10.2014 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-4 HT 1-2 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
01.03.2014 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
31.08.2013 Peterborough United Peterborough United 0-2 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1

Peterborough United 4-3 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
4-3
AWAY Crawley Town
2.24 xG 2.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
320 Passes 342
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United squeezed past Crawley Town 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Peterborough United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Peterborough United had 49% of the ball to Crawley Town's 51%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 2.24 to 2.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Peterborough United and 1.33 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Crawley Town?

Peterborough United 4-3 Crawley Town in the England - 1st Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 43%, draw 27%, Crawley Town 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Peterborough United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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