Exeter City 1-2 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 31% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.06
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
14%
6.14
X/2
14%
5.29
X/X
11%
5.03
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
16%
3.3
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.0pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +15%
1.04/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.25
-43% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
305 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 71%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
23.5 Crosses 16.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Barnsley
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.19 xG 1.22
44% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
241 Passes 322
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.01.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 1-2 HT 0-2 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
07.10.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
28.03.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 3-1 HT 1-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
08.10.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 0-2 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
1-2
AWAY Barnsley
0.69 xG 1.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
361 Passes 307
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley squeezed past Exeter City 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Barnsley found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Exeter City had 52% of the ball to Barnsley's 48%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.69 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Exeter City had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Exeter City and 0.75 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Barnsley?

Exeter City 1-2 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 36%, draw 26%, Barnsley 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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