Barnsley 1-2 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.26
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.5
6+ Goals
12%
13.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.28
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.25
X/1
16%
3.9
X/2
9%
8.53
X/X
13%
5.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.45
2/2
12%
6.7
2/X
6%
15.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.45 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnsley EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 26%
+10% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -20%
1.54/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.52
+17% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
336 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 67%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.3 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnsley
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Exeter City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
324 Passes 249
72% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
28.03.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 3-1 HT 1-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
08.10.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 0-2 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnsley
1-2
AWAY Exeter City
1.34 xG 0.66
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 10
317 Passes 218
73% Pass Accuracy 64%
29 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Barnsley vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City nicked a narrow win over Barnsley 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Barnsley at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Barnsley had 56% of the ball to Exeter City's 44%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.34 to 0.66 — on chances, Barnsley could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Exeter City led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Barnsley and 1.67 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Barnsley vs Exeter City?

Barnsley 1-2 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnsley vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Barnsley 48%, draw 25%, Exeter City 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barnsley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barnsley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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