Bristol Rovers 3-1 Oxford United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
39%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 26% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.06
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
12%
5.05
X/2
13%
6.34
X/X
7%
5.05
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
19%
4.21
2/X
9%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+7.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.6pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford United EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +16%
1.25/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.06
+5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
272 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 69%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
20.2 Crosses 19.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Oxford United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
266 Passes 281
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 2-1 HT 1-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
25.02.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 0-3 HT 0-2 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
13.08.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
16.11.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4-3 HT 0-0 Oxford United Oxford United FAK
07.11.2021 Oxford United Oxford United 2-2 HT 1-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers FAK
09.02.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-2 HT 0-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
3-1
AWAY Oxford United
1.12 xG 0.47
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
258 Passes 424
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Oxford United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol Rovers saw off Oxford United 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Bristol Rovers made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 42% of the ball to Oxford United's 58%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.12 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol Rovers had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.50 for Oxford United.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Oxford United?

Bristol Rovers 3-1 Oxford United in the England - 1st Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Oxford United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 38%, draw 23%, Oxford United 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Oxford United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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