Real Madrid 4-4 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 1 Apr 2025

📅01/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
32%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.97
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.25
X/1
15%
4.18
X/2 EV+ ✗
12%
11.15
X/X
10%
6.12
2/1
8%
21.15
2/2
12%
8.69
2/X
8%
17.1
Value flag · X/2 at 11.15 — our 12% vs market 6.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
60%
-16.5pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.8pp
32%
Away Win
18%
+13.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.1pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.52/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.01
+67% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +65%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
472 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
42.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
25.7 Crosses 12.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.40 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
428 Passes 407
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2025 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-1 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
14.09.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
26.04.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-1 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
17.09.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 0-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
02.05.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
29.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-4
AWAY Real Sociedad
3.12 xG 1.03
58% Ball Possession 42%
26 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
637 Passes 430
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
44 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. Half-time: 1-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Real Madrid had 58% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 42%, shots finished 26-11, expected goals 3.12 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Real Madrid and 0.50 for Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

Real Madrid 4-4 Real Sociedad in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 43%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad 32%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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