Empoli 0-3 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 1 Apr 2025

Empoli
0-3 HT 0-2
Bologna
📅01/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Empoli vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.34
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
45%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.6
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.35
6+ Goals
11%
22.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
10.95
1/2
4%
28.0
1/X
4%
19.5
X/1
12%
11.85
X/2
20%
3.86
X/X
9%
4.61
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.02
2/X EV+ ✗
15%
16.85
Value flag · 2/X at 16.85 — our 15% vs market 3.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
16%
+11.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
44%
Away Win
59%
-14.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Empoli v Bologna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 62%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.16/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/0.00
-7% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / –
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
249 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 86%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Empoli vs Bologna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bologna
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 1.76
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
190 Passes 450
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.01.2025 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
31.08.2024 Bologna Bologna 1-1 HT 1-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
15.03.2024 Empoli Empoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
01.10.2023 Bologna Bologna 3-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
04.05.2023 Empoli Empoli 3-1 HT 2-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
17.09.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-1 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA

Empoli 0-3 Bologna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
0-3
AWAY Bologna
0.40 xG 2.18
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 3
217 Passes 530
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna swept aside Empoli 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bologna as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Empoli had 33% of the ball to Bologna's 67%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.40 to 2.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Empoli and 1.17 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Bologna?

Empoli 0-3 Bologna in the Italy - Cup on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Empoli 27%, draw 28%, Bologna 44%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bologna), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bologna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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