Cerro 2-1 Montevideo Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 1 Apr 2025

📅01/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.4pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.1pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
0.99/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.12
-18% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
18.02.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
04.11.2023 Cerro Cerro 0-1 HT 0-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
26.03.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 3-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
29.03.2021 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 1-1 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
11.10.2020 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 0-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
2-1
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro squeezed past Montevideo Wanderers 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Cerro made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro had 54% of the ball to Montevideo Wanderers's 46%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montevideo Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cerro and 1.33 for Montevideo Wanderers.

What was the final score of Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Cerro 2-1 Montevideo Wanderers in the Uruguay - Premier League on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cerro 38%, draw 30%, Montevideo Wanderers 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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