Sturm Graz 2-1 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - ÖFB Cup, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.74
6+ Goals
12%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.13
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.55
X/1
13%
4.43
X/2
13%
6.31
X/X
18%
4.02
2/1
5%
30.0
2/2
14%
5.11
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
14.9
Value flag · 2/X at 14.9 — our 9% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
-9.2pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.8pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.8pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 32%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.57/0.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.47/0.95
-26% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / +107%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
263 Passes 292
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.04.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-3 HT 1-3 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
18.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 1-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
24.09.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
28.05.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 3-2 HT 2-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
30.04.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
2-1
AWAY Rapid Wien
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz squeezed past Rapid Wien 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 33% / 33% — and on the day Sturm Graz made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 52% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 48%, shots finished 11-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.00 for Rapid Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Sturm Graz 2-1 Rapid Wien in the Austria - ÖFB Cup on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 35%, draw 33%, Rapid Wien 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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