Rapid Wien 1-3 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.13
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
6%
6.92
X/2
17%
4.66
X/X
15%
4.36
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.92
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
28%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.6pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.23/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.26
-8% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
257 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 73%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
16.9 Crosses 18.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rapid Wien
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.42 xG 1.47
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
276 Passes 254
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
18.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 1-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
24.09.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
28.05.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 3-2 HT 2-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
30.04.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
02.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-1 HT 2-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rapid Wien
1-3
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.36 xG 0.73
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
393 Passes 248
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz saw off Rapid Wien 3-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rapid Wien had 59% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 41%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.36 to 0.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Rapid Wien.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rapid Wien and 1.67 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Rapid Wien 1-3 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rapid Wien 27%, draw 28%, Sturm Graz 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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