Fredrikstad 1-0 Rosenborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - NM Cup, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
1.91
Over 2.5
60%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.42
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.47 — our 31% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.43
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.2
X/2
6%
5.73
X/X
13%
4.81
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
20%
3.93
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 11% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
48%
-8.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
52%
+8.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.7pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rosenborg EU Bookmakers 38%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.54/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/3.95
-65% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -61%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fredrikstad
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Rosenborg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
3 Corners 5
11.11.2012 Rosenborg Rosenborg 0-1 HT 0-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
13.04.2012 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-2 HT 1-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
26.10.2011 Rosenborg Rosenborg 2-0 HT 2-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
18.04.2011 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 2-0 HT 1-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
21.08.2009 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-4 HT 0-1 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
03.05.2009 Rosenborg Rosenborg 1-0 HT 1-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fredrikstad
1-0
AWAY Rosenborg
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fredrikstad squeezed past Rosenborg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Fredrikstad found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fredrikstad had 46% of the ball to Rosenborg's 54%, shots finished 11-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rosenborg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.50 for Rosenborg.

What was the final score of Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?

Fredrikstad 1-0 Rosenborg in the Norway - NM Cup on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fredrikstad win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fredrikstad 37%, draw 26%, Rosenborg 37%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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