Corinthians 2-0 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 1 May 2026

📅01/05/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
11%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.75
No
62%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
5.67
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.97
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
5%
19.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
35%
3.52
X/2
4%
12.55
X/X
13%
4.01
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
4%
12.75
2/X
7%
22.65
Value flag · X/1 at 3.52 — our 35% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
62%
+2.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
11%
Away Win
13%
-1.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
32%
+6.0pp
62%
BTTS No
68%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 16%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.69/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.09
+17% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
449 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 75%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
26.0 Crosses 12.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
0W-0D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.49 xG 1.56
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 4
413 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2021 CA Penarol CA Penarol 4-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians CON CSA
30.04.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
2-0
AWAY CA Penarol
2.14 xG 0.29
78% Ball Possession 22%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
558 Passes 102
90% Pass Accuracy 60%
23 Box Touches 6
15 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians beat CA Penarol 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Corinthians had 78% of the ball to CA Penarol's 22%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.14 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Corinthians and 3.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs CA Penarol?

Corinthians 2-0 CA Penarol in the Copa Libertadores on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 64%, draw 25%, CA Penarol 11%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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