Independiente Rivadavia 4-1 Deportivo La Guaira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 1 May 2026

📅01/05/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.3
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
10%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.4
No
53%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 26% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.54
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
6%
22.65
X/1
26%
3.49
X/2
4%
18.35
X/X
9%
6.29
2/1
5%
26.5
2/2
4%
17.8
2/X
4%
27.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
72%
-0.7pp
19%
Draw
18%
+0.8pp
10%
Away Win
10%
-0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
38%
+9.6pp
53%
BTTS No
62%
-9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Rivadavia EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 14%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.35/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.25/2.10
-50% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +51%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
426 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 3.9
21.0 Crosses 5.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Rivadavia
4-1
AWAY Deportivo La Guaira
3.34 xG 0.26
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
281 Passes 268
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Independiente Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Rivadavia swept aside Deportivo La Guaira 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente Rivadavia as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Independiente Rivadavia had 52% of the ball to Deportivo La Guaira's 48%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 3.34 to 0.26.

What was the final score of Independiente Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?

Independiente Rivadavia 4-1 Deportivo La Guaira in the Copa Libertadores on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Rivadavia win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Independiente Rivadavia 71%, draw 19%, Deportivo La Guaira 10%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Rivadavia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Rivadavia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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