Muang Thong United vs BG Pathum United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Muang Thong United v BG Pathum United — Team-Based Signals
Muang Thong United vs BG Pathum United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
BG Pathum United
TAY
3-0
HT 0-0
Muang Thong United
TAY
2-2
HT 1-0
BG Pathum United
TAY
Muang Thong United 1-1 BG Pathum United — Actual Match Statistics
Muang Thong United and BG Pathum United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 29%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Muang Thong United had 39% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 61%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 0.98 to 0.69.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Muang Thong United and 1.83 for BG Pathum United.
What was the final score of Muang Thong United vs BG Pathum United?
Muang Thong United 1-1 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Muang Thong United vs BG Pathum United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Muang Thong United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Muang Thong United 40%, draw 30%, BG Pathum United 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Muang Thong United) went the other way.