BG Pathum United 3-0 Muang Thong United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.75
Draw
17%
3.72
Away
20%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.15
Over 2.5
66%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
9%
X/X
4%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
53%
+10.2pp
17%
Draw
24%
-6.7pp
20%
Away Win
23%
-3.5pp
34%
Under 2.5
43%
-9.3pp
66%
Over 2.5
57%
+9.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.9pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Muang Thong United EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.40/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.30
-16% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
358 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
22.7 Crosses 13.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Muang Thong United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.30 xG 0.68
46% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 Passes 413
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.03.2025 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 2-0 HT 1-0 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United TAY
19.10.2024 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United 1-1 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
25.02.2023 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United 1-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
01.10.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 3-0 HT 0-0 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United TAY
16.01.2022 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United 2-2 HT 1-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
13.10.2021 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 2-1 HT 2-0 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
3-0
AWAY Muang Thong United
1.08 xG 1.26
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
349 Passes 378
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Muang Thong United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United cruised past Muang Thong United 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had BG Pathum United as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (66%) landed while both teams to score (58%) missed.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 48% of the ball to Muang Thong United's 52%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.08 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for BG Pathum United and 0.83 for Muang Thong United.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Muang Thong United?

BG Pathum United 3-0 Muang Thong United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Muang Thong United?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 63%, draw 17%, Muang Thong United 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BG Pathum United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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