Bahia 2-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 1 Jun 2025

📅01/06/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-5.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+5.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.1pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +14%
1.46/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.30
+2% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
345 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.4 Crosses 14.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.89 xG 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
323 Passes 437
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
08.11.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
11.07.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
2-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
2.49 xG 1.86
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
411 Passes 286
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Sao Paulo 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 59% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 41%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 2.49 to 1.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

Bahia 2-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 01/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bahia 44%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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