Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Nov 2024

Bahia
0-3 HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
📅06/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.9
No
61%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.56
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.6
6+ Goals
7%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 38% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
11%
4.72
X/2
10%
6.56
X/X
16%
3.82
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
11%
5.11
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.0pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.1pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.46/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.99
+16% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 83%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.7 Crosses 17.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9

Bahia vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.84 xG 1.37
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
307 Passes 467
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
08.11.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
11.07.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
29.11.2020 Bahia Bahia 1-3 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
0-3
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.46 xG 1.13
52% Ball Possession 48%
24 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
382 Passes 362
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
41 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo swept aside Bahia 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (61%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Bahia had 52% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 48%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 1.46 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bahia 44%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 27%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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