Botafogo 3-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Nov 2024

📅06/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.03
Over 2.5
42%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
18%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 31% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
19.05
X/1
16%
3.52
X/2
7%
15.4
X/X
12%
6.23
2/1
10%
23.6
2/2
5%
12.6
2/X
7%
20.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-12.5pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.8pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
45%
+12.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
55%
-12.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.0pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.60/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.68
-8% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
395 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
24.5 Crosses 17.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.38 xG 0.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
354 Passes 331
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
07.11.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
02.07.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
17.02.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRC1
14.02.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BRC1
07.11.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-4 HT 0-3 Botafogo Botafogo BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
3-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.59 xG 0.64
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
531 Passes 282
92% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 15
32 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo cruised past Vasco da Gama 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Botafogo had 64% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 36%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.59 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Botafogo and 0.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Botafogo 3-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 54%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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