Tigres UANL 2-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 1 Aug 2024

📅01/08/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.47
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
2.43
Over
47%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.66
No Pick
56%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
29%
5.11
2-3
40%
1.96
4-5
20%
2.74
6+
11%
7.04
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.11 — our 29% vs market 14.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
51%
Home Win
64%
-12.5pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.6pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-12.3pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL The Market 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla The Market 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -48%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
402 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
Crosses 26.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Puebla
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.26 xG 1.11
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
410 Passes 306
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-3 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
04.12.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 3-0 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
01.12.2023 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
02.07.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.05.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.04.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL edged past Puebla 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.83 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Puebla?

Tigres UANL 2-1 Puebla in the Concacaf League Cup on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 51%, draw 23%, Puebla 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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