Arbroath 1-1 Ayr United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 1 Aug 2025

Arbroath
1-1 HT 0-1
Ayr United
📅01/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2025/2026

Arbroath vs Ayr United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
49%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.81
No
41%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.59
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
23.05
1/X
9%
15.75
X/1
8%
8.33
X/2
12%
4.25
X/X
11%
5.15
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
27%
2.38
2/X
8%
14.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.05 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.3pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.5pp
41%
BTTS No
49%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arbroath v Ayr United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arbroath EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Ayr United EU Bookmakers 56%
+2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.79/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.58
-26% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +80%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
275 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.1 Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards –

Arbroath vs Ayr United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arbroath
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ayr United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
The Meetings
19.07.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 4-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKLK
23.01.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 2-0 HT 0-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
13.01.2024 Arbroath Arbroath 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
02.09.2023 Arbroath Arbroath 2-1 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
31.03.2023 Arbroath Arbroath 2-0 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
14.01.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 2-2 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
POST-MATCH Arbroath vs Ayr United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arbroath and Ayr United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ayr United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (59%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arbroath and 1.50 for Ayr United.

What was the final score of Arbroath vs Ayr United?

Arbroath 1-1 Ayr United in the Scotland - Championship on 01/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arbroath vs Ayr United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arbroath 23%, draw 28%, Ayr United 49%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ayr United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ BTTS Yes
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