VPS 1-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 1 Aug 2025

📅01/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.61
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
21%
2.96
6+ Goals
11%
8.57
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.52 — our 26% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
58%
-2.1pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.9pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.8pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 23%
-11% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.25/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.51
-13% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
414 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 77%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
22.8 Crosses 16.1
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
4W-2D-0L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.37 xG 1.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
342 Passes 318
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.06.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-5 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
28.07.2024 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
03.09.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-2 VPS VPS FİN
05.05.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.10.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
1-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
0.94 xG 0.44
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
278 Passes 274
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH VPS vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS and IFK Mariehamn couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had VPS at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, VPS had 51% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 49%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.94 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for VPS and 1.00 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of VPS vs IFK Mariehamn?

VPS 1-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 01/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split VPS 56%, draw 20%, IFK Mariehamn 24%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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