IFK Mariehamn 1-5 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 14 Jun 2025

📅14/06/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
47%
Away Win
46%
+1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.0pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 49%
-7% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +16%
1.46/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.86
-21% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
242 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 83%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
18.5 Crosses 22.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-2D-3L
AWAY VPS
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.31
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
328 Passes 365
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 29
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2024 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
03.09.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-2 VPS VPS FİN
05.05.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.10.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
09.07.2022 VPS VPS 1-3 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1-5
AWAY VPS
0.97 xG 1.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 2
278 Passes 252
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS cruised past IFK Mariehamn 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 53% of the ball to VPS's 47%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 0.97 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.50 for VPS.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs VPS?

IFK Mariehamn 1-5 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 14/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated an VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 28%, draw 25%, VPS 47%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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