VPS 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 28 Jul 2024

VPS
2-1 HT 1-0
IFK Mariehamn
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

VPS vs IFK Mariehamn Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.45
6+ Goals
12%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 24% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.06
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.9
X/1
16%
3.77
X/2
9%
10.3
X/X
14%
5.35
2/1
9%
23.15
2/2
10%
8.2
2/X
5%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VPS v IFK Mariehamn — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 22%
-18% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
2.10/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.32
-14% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
383 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
23.9 Crosses 18.6
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

VPS vs IFK Mariehamn Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.18 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
342 Passes 334
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
03.09.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-2 VPS VPS FİN
05.05.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.10.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
09.07.2022 VPS VPS 1-3 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
29.05.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-3 HT 0-2 VPS VPS FİN

VPS 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
2-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.69 xG 1.20
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
435 Passes 309
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH VPS vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS squeezed past IFK Mariehamn 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, VPS had 56% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 44%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.69 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for VPS and 1.33 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of VPS vs IFK Mariehamn?

VPS 2-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split VPS 50%, draw 25%, IFK Mariehamn 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✗ BTTS No
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