Burton Albion 1-0 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 1 Aug 2026

Burton Albion
1-0 HT 1-0
Derby County
📅01/08/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Burton Albion vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
54%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.11
2-3 Goals
44%
1.72
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
22%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
24%
-3.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
54%
Away Win
51%
+3.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burton Albion v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 55%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
0.61/2.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.14
-50% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -44%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
248 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Burton Albion vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Derby County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.74 xG 1.90
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
188 Passes 268
59% Pass Accuracy 67%
18 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.07.2025 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County HAZ
15.01.2024 Derby County Derby County 3-2 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
12.08.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
22.04.2023 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
10.12.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
20.07.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-5 HT 1-3 Derby County Derby County HAZ
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion edged past Derby County 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Burton Albion and 2.33 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Derby County?

Burton Albion 1-0 Derby County in the Friendlies on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 21%, draw 25%, Derby County 54%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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