Burton Albion vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Burton Albion v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Burton Albion vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Derby County
İN1
1-0
HT 0-0
Burton Albion
İN1
1-1
HT 0-1
Derby County
İN1
2-5
HT 1-3
Derby County
HAZ
3-1
HT 2-1
Derby County
İNCL
Burton Albion 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Burton Albion squeezed past Derby County 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Burton Albion had 49% of the ball to Derby County's 51%, shots finished 6-10.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burton Albion and 2.33 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Derby County?
Burton Albion 2-1 Derby County in the Friendlies on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 24%, draw 24%, Derby County 52%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Derby County), BTTS No went the other way.