Mainz 05 II 1-4 Steinbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+4.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.4pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Steinbach EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
310 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Steinbach
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.03.2025 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-1 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
14.09.2024 Steinbach Steinbach 2-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
16.12.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 4-4 HT 2-4 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
20.08.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-0 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
03.12.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-1 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
13.08.2022 Steinbach Steinbach 0-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs Steinbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Steinbach swept aside Mainz 05 II 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 II at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mainz 05 II and 1.33 for Steinbach.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs Steinbach?

Mainz 05 II 1-4 Steinbach in the Friendlies on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs Steinbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 II win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 43%, draw 26%, Steinbach 31%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mainz 05 II), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05 II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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