Newcastle United 2-1 Tottenham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 1 Sep 2024

Newcastle United
2-1 HT 1-0
Tottenham
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Tottenham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.39
No
40%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.31
2-3 Goals
37%
2.1
4-5 Goals
27%
2.53
6+ Goals
16%
5.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.19
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
15%
5.87
X/2
12%
6.26
X/X
12%
6.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.7
2/2
13%
3.49
2/X
8%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
68%
-7.8pp
40%
BTTS No
32%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Tottenham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tottenham EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -18%
1.74/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.71
+11% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
19.8 Crosses 16.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Newcastle United vs Tottenham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tottenham
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.03 xG 2.07
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
323 Passes 478
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.05.2024 Tottenham Tottenham 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United HAZ
13.04.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-0 HT 2-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
10.12.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 4-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
23.04.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 6-1 HT 5-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
23.10.2022 Tottenham Tottenham 1-2 HT 0-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
03.04.2022 Tottenham Tottenham 5-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Newcastle United 2-1 Tottenham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
2-1
AWAY Tottenham
1.83 xG 1.26
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 12
183 Passes 421
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 50
12 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Tottenham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United nicked a narrow win over Tottenham 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle United had 34% of the ball to Tottenham's 66%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.83 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Newcastle United and 2.00 for Tottenham.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Tottenham?

Newcastle United 2-1 Tottenham in the England - Premier League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Tottenham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 43%, draw 26%, Tottenham 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
1 Sep 2024
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