Zürich 1-1 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.73
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
12%
4.89
X/2
14%
7.21
X/X
8%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
2/2
14%
4.68
2/X
8%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.4pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zürich EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.48/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.34
-1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
17.3 Crosses 17.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zürich
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Luzern
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.29 xG 1.54
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 Passes 242
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
10.12.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
01.10.2023 Luzern Luzern 1-4 HT 0-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
15.04.2023 Luzern Luzern 4-1 HT 2-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
18.03.2023 Zürich Zürich 2-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
21.01.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-2 HT 0-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zürich
1-1
AWAY Luzern
0.49 xG 1.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
377 Passes 234
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zürich vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zürich and Luzern couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Zürich at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Zürich had 59% of the ball to Luzern's 41%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.49 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zürich had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Zürich and 1.50 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Zürich vs Luzern?

Zürich 1-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zürich vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zürich win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Zürich 42%, draw 24%, Luzern 34%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zürich) ✗ Over 2.5
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
1 Sep 2024
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