Winterthur 0-1 Servette — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
42%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 28% vs market 19.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.3
1/2
9%
21.85
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
14%
8.79
X/2
11%
4.24
X/X
13%
5.46
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.28
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+6.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
42%
Away Win
52%
-10.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Servette EU Bookmakers 56%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.11/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.94
-12% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -36%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
257 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.8
16.1 Crosses 24.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Servette
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.72
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
352 Passes 362
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 Servette Servette 2-1 HT 2-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
28.04.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 0-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSVK
30.03.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-0 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
23.01.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 3-3 HT 0-2 Servette Servette İSV
27.09.2023 Servette Servette 2-2 HT 0-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
20.05.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
0-1
AWAY Servette
1.28 xG 2.62
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
242 Passes 417
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Servette
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Servette nicked a narrow win over Winterthur 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Servette as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Winterthur had 40% of the ball to Servette's 60%, shots finished 16-23, expected goals 1.28 to 2.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Servette's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Winterthur and 1.50 for Servette.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Servette?

Winterthur 0-1 Servette in the Switzerland - Super League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Servette?

Before kick-off our model rated an Servette win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 30%, draw 28%, Servette 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Servette) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Servette) ✗ BTTS Yes
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