Lugano 1-1 St. Gallen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.48
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.49
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.48 — our 28% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.75
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
15%
4.85
X/2
12%
7.05
X/X
10%
5.46
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
14%
4.62
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.4pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.35/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.49
-12% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 72%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
17.1 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
4W-1D-1L
AWAY St. Gallen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.58 xG 1.34
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
415 Passes 205
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
09.03.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-3 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.01.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-4 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.07.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
26.04.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-2 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.04.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
1-1
AWAY St. Gallen
0.67 xG 1.59
66% Ball Possession 34%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
493 Passes 224
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugano vs St. Gallen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano and St. Gallen shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Lugano at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lugano had 66% of the ball to St. Gallen's 34%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.67 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lugano and 1.00 for St. Gallen.

What was the final score of Lugano vs St. Gallen?

Lugano 1-1 St. Gallen in the Switzerland - Super League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs St. Gallen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lugano 44%, draw 24%, St. Gallen 32%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ BTTS No
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