Lugano 0-1 St. Gallen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.38
Over 2.5
46%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.46
No
51%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
5.17
2-3 Goals
41%
1.97
4-5 Goals
21%
2.72
6+ Goals
11%
6.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.17 — our 27% vs market 14.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.34
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
8%
11.9
X/1
14%
5.87
X/2
9%
6.19
X/X
9%
5.46
2/1
11%
24.0
2/2
16%
3.6
2/X
8%
12.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
64%
-15.7pp
51%
BTTS No
36%
+15.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 39%
+4% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.33/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.44
-17% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
15.6 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
4W-2D-0L
AWAY St. Gallen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.54 xG 1.31
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
394 Passes 209
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-3 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.01.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-4 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.07.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
26.04.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-2 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.04.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
16.10.2022 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
0-1
AWAY St. Gallen
1.00 xG 1.59
70% Ball Possession 30%
21 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
462 Passes 176
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Box Touches 19
31 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs St. Gallen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Gallen squeezed past Lugano 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Lugano at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lugano had 70% of the ball to St. Gallen's 30%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 1.00 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lugano and 1.00 for St. Gallen.

What was the final score of Lugano vs St. Gallen?

Lugano 0-1 St. Gallen in the Switzerland - Super League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs St. Gallen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lugano 43%, draw 25%, St. Gallen 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lugano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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