Catanzaro 3-1 Carrarese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.06
6+ Goals
10%
19.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 30% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.97
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
15%
4.67
X/2
9%
7.05
X/X
15%
4.06
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
13%
5.33
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Carrarese EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+9% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.9 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catanzaro
3-1
AWAY Carrarese
1.85 xG 0.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 5
367 Passes 406
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Catanzaro vs Carrarese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catanzaro saw off Carrarese 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Catanzaro as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Catanzaro had 47% of the ball to Carrarese's 53%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.85 to 0.38.

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Carrarese?

Catanzaro 3-1 Carrarese in the Italy - Serie B on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catanzaro vs Carrarese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Catanzaro win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Catanzaro 42%, draw 27%, Carrarese 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Catanzaro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Catanzaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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