Spezia 2-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.51
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
16%
5.01
X/2
12%
5.86
X/X
14%
4.02
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
10%
4.38
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+3.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.51/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.95
+1% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
23.6 Crosses 25.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cesena
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
03.03.2018 Spezia Spezia 1-2 HT 1-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
07.10.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
17.04.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
19.11.2016 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
24.05.2016 Cesena Cesena 1-2 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
01.03.2016 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-1
AWAY Cesena
1.42 xG 1.26
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
303 Passes 372
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia squeezed past Cesena 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spezia had 46% of the ball to Cesena's 54%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.42 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spezia and 1.00 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Cesena?

Spezia 2-1 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Spezia 43%, draw 28%, Cesena 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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