Mantova 1-0 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 28% vs market 21.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.16
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
10%
5.16
X/2
11%
6.42
X/X
10%
4.77
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
21%
4.3
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-6.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+7.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.8pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 34%
+15% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.14/2.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.51
+105% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 77%
7.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
15.0 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Salernitana
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
01.05.2010 Salernitana Salernitana 1-3 HT 1-2 Mantova Mantova İTB
05.12.2009 Mantova Mantova 1-1 HT 1-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
30.05.2009 Mantova Mantova 1-1 HT 1-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
17.01.2009 Salernitana Salernitana 2-1 HT 2-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
1-0
AWAY Salernitana
0.43 xG 0.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 1
450 Passes 362
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova edged past Salernitana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Mantova made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Mantova had 55% of the ball to Salernitana's 45%, shots finished 7-5, expected goals 0.43 to 0.17.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mantova and 1.25 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Salernitana?

Mantova 1-0 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie B on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salernitana win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mantova 35%, draw 26%, Salernitana 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Salernitana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salernitana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
1 Sep 2024
21:30 Catanzaro vs Carrarese Analysis →
21:30 Palermo vs Cosenza Calcio Analysis →
21:30 Frosinone vs Juve Stabia Analysis →
21:30 Spezia vs Cesena Analysis →