Stellenbosch FC 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Cup, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.13
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
45%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.27
No
54%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.43
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+7.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-7.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.6pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stellenbosch FC EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 56%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.23/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.88
+56% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -26%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
205 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
9.1 Crosses 17.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stellenbosch FC
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.74
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
166 Passes 469
66% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.08.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 HT 0-0 Stellenbosch FC Stellenbosch FC GAF8K
18.05.2024 Stellenbosch FC Stellenbosch FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
05.05.2024 Stellenbosch FC Stellenbosch FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
27.09.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-1 HT 2-1 Stellenbosch FC Stellenbosch FC GAFPSL
15.04.2023 Stellenbosch FC Stellenbosch FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
05.03.2023 Stellenbosch FC Stellenbosch FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stellenbosch FC
1-0
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
2.31 xG 1.07
24% Ball Possession 76%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
90 Passes 475
52% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Stellenbosch FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stellenbosch FC squeezed past Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Mamelodi Sundowns at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Stellenbosch FC had 24% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 76%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 2.31 to 1.07 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stellenbosch FC's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Stellenbosch FC and 1.33 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of Stellenbosch FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Stellenbosch FC 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns in the South Afrika - Cup on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stellenbosch FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stellenbosch FC 28%, draw 27%, Mamelodi Sundowns 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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