PEC Zwolle 3-0 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
23%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.75
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
18%
4.63
X/2
11%
7.07
X/X
12%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.6
2/2
7%
4.97
2/X
7%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
47%
+4.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
23%
Away Win
28%
-4.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -28%
1.55/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.46
-19% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
22.3 Crosses 16.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Heracles
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.33 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
331 Passes 287
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
01.10.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
15.01.2023 Heracles Heracles 0-3 HT 0-3 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
14.10.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-2 HT 3-1 Heracles Heracles HOL2
26.02.2022 Heracles Heracles 2-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
23.10.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
3-0
AWAY Heracles
2.42 xG 0.60
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
360 Passes 242
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle swept aside Heracles 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had PEC Zwolle as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 58% of the ball to Heracles's 42%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.42 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.17 for Heracles.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?

PEC Zwolle 3-0 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 51%, draw 25%, Heracles 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PEC Zwolle), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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