Utrecht 2-1 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.62
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.95
1/2
9%
26.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
13%
5.95
X/2
7%
5.34
X/X
15%
4.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
29.0
2/2
14%
3.4
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 12% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
35%
+7.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
38%
-7.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.6pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 42%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.76/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.15
+33% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
294 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
20.9 Crosses 19.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Twente
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.63 xG 1.24
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 Passes 389
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Twente Twente 0-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
05.11.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 1-1 Twente Twente HOL
16.04.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
22.01.2023 Twente Twente 2-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
22.12.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 0-1 Twente Twente HOL
11.09.2021 Twente Twente 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
2-1
AWAY Twente
0.86 xG 1.07
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
211 Passes 437
66% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht squeezed past Twente 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Utrecht had 37% of the ball to Twente's 63%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.86 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Utrecht and 0.83 for Twente.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Twente?

Utrecht 2-1 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 43%, draw 27%, Twente 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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